Morocco: Managing Tensions between Algeria and Morocco

Since 2021, when Algeria cut ties with Morocco, the two neighbours have been at odds. Thus far, their quarrels have largely remained in the diplomatic realm. Western countries should help keep a lid on the disputes until the time is ripe for a rapprochement.

What’s new? Since 2021, Algeria and Morocco have been embroiled in a diplomatic crisis. Incidents in Western Sahara risk bringing the two countries to blows, and Rabat’s relations with Israel are a source of friction.

Why does it matter? Mutual self-restraint and U.S. pressure have helped contain tensions between the countries, but escalatory pressures could undermine the status quo. Risk factors include a bilateral arms race, the spread of misinformation online, a surge of militancy among youth in Western Sahara’s pro-independence Polisario Front and the change in U.S. administrations.

What should be done? Outside actors should stress the importance of protecting civilians and allowing the UN mission to operate effectively in Western Sahara. They should also keep engaging with the Algerian and Moroccan governments, calibrate arms sales and help relaunch UN-sponsored talks on Western Sahara to prevent further escalation.

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Executive Summary

Since Algeria cut ties with Morocco in 2021, the two countries have managed to avoid armed confrontation despite several incidents in Western Sahara that could have led to escalation. Morocco had moved in 2020 to normalise relations and pursue military cooperation with Israel. Algeria saw Israel’s increasingly close ties with Morocco – amid other developments – as a threat to its national security. But the key flashpoint between the countries is Western Sahara, where Morocco asserts sovereignty and Algeria backs the pro-independence Polisario Front. So far, mutual self-restraint and U.S. diplomacy have maintained peace between the neighbours, but hostilities in Western Sahara, online disinformation, a bilateral arms race and the advent of President-elect Donald Trump’s administration are all risks. Western countries can help manage the crisis by insisting that the conflict parties in Western Sahara protect civilians and permit the UN mission there to do its job, limiting arms transfers, supporting UN talks about Western Sahara and pressing social media firms to curb online hate speech in both Algeria and Morocco.

Over the past few years, Morocco and Algeria have both assumed a more assertive foreign policy posture. Under King Mohamed VI, Morocco has enhanced its regional influence, particularly through pressure on Western Sahara, and expanded its international relations. In contrast, Algeria’s clout diminished following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s 2013 stroke and the 2019-2021 pro-democracy protest movement, which kept the authorities preoccupied with domestic stability. But under President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, elected in 2019, Algiers has been trying to regain its historical prominence in North African and Sahelian affairs.

Against this backdrop, considerable friction has developed between the two countries. The normalisation of relations between Morocco and Israel in late 2020 antagonised Algeria, which sensed a conspiracy against its interests. Subsequent events, including Morocco’s statement of support for self-determination in Algeria’s Berber-majority Kabylia region and its alleged use of Israeli spyware to gather intelligence on Algerian officials, exacerbated tensions. In August 2021, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid accused Algeria of meddling in Sahelian affairs while visiting Rabat, triggering Algiers’ decision to suspend relations with its neighbour. A series of subsequent incidents have propelled the dispute, spurring both Rabat and Algiers to buy new weapons systems from abroad in a spiralling competition. Online disinformation in both countries has only added fuel to the fire.

Fighting has broken out anew in Western Sahara, with the Polisario Front renouncing a 30-year-old ceasefire in late 2020.

Meanwhile, fighting has broken out anew in Western Sahara, with the Polisario Front renouncing a 30-year-old ceasefire in late 2020. Since then, Rabat and the Polisario have been locked in a war of attrition, which has imperilled the UN mission in Western Sahara since 1991. In 2022 and 2023, the mission said it might have to withdraw, which in turn might have brought Moroccan and Algerian troops face to face on the border, dramatically increasing the risk of a cross-border war. The mission was preserved, thanks to U.S. intercession, and tensions subsequently eased.

External actors have played a variety of roles. From Washington, the Biden administration has tried to prevent a direct conflict by deepening its engagement with all three parties at the core of the crisis – Algeria, Morocco and the Polisario. European governments, by contrast, have struggled with their diplomacy, caught in the middle of the zero-sum game between Algiers and Rabat. Spain and France tried to stay on good terms with both countries but eventually aligned themselves with Morocco, expressing support for its preferred solution to the Western Sahara conflict. In both cases, the shift alienated Algeria. The European Union has tried to shield its relationship with Morocco from the repercussions of a long-running legal battle over Western Sahara at the European Court of Justice, striving (with mixed success) to balance this effort with outreach to Algeria.

The Algeria-Morocco rivalry has spilled over into other parts of North and sub-Saharan Africa. Morocco has taken advantage of Algeria’s declining influence in the Sahel to offer to build a motorway connecting this region to Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara. In response, Algiers has proposed a new North African grouping that includes Libya and Tunisia and excludes Morocco. At the African Union, frictions between the two neighbours have at times undermined the regular functioning of institutions.

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Through mutual self-restraint and with U.S. help, Algeria and Morocco have managed to avoid a military clash, but the danger is not past. In Western Sahara, through trial and error, the two sides appear to have settled on certain rules of the game (underpinned in some respects by their obligations under international law) that involve protecting civilians and safeguarding the UN mission’s role on the ground. But the precarious status quo could be shaped by several risk factors. These include calls from restless Polisario activists for more aggressive action against Morocco; the arms race between Algiers and Rabat; the effects of online rhetoric; and the possibility that the incoming Trump administration will upset the diplomatic equilibrium fashioned by the Biden team.

With the U.S. in a moment of political transition, European governments may need to take the lead in helping manage tensions between the two neighbours. They and other interested outside actors should encourage the parties to treat as sacrosanct the emerging rules of the game, encourage suppliers to calibrate their shipments to Rabat and Algiers in order to contain the risk of a destabilising arms race, help relaunch UN-led negotiations over Western Sahara, and encourage social media platforms to monitor and curtail incendiary disinformation. When conditions are ripe, the next step will be for Algeria and Morocco to restore ties – and ideally to go beyond diplomatic normalisation to promote cooperation on border security, infrastructure and trade as the basis for a more stable, productive and enduring relationship.

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