West Africa: Sahel – Always and Still Conflicts

Since 2005, the Sahel remains again and again weakened by terrorism! Due to the environment degradation, it is expanding and terrorism is spreading, taking root, and becoming commonplace. This context exposes and further weakens this vast area composed of countries that are often poorly structured to face the multiple ambitions and internal and external threats of more organized, more determined actors announcing to all attractive promises down here and beyond. The continued rooting and expansion of that terrorism – now a Sahel trademark – is reinforced by the bloody civil war in Sudan, still in its early stages, the armed impasse in Libya and the headlong rush of the Sahel states themselves. The return to a kind of cold war remains a useless bet in the face of so many dangers promising to terrorism rooting and expansion. The deficit in anticipation capacities, one of the immense challenges remains to be overcome.

Rooting and expansion of terrorism.

For a longtime on the margins of national capitals centers of activities and strategies the Sahel, once attractive, including for international tourism, has been a security concern since the 2000s. After having been the subject of military and diplomatic issues for more than a decade, it is now more exposed. An area all the more favorable to insecurity and trafficking since all of its external partners are taken by priorities that are more strategic for them: the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Faced with these many challenges, government and citizen responsibilities cannot continue to be forever delayed.

With conflicts, or rather real wars, for over a decade, without winners or losers but many victims, the Sahel states are more fragile than ever. Worse, citizens, especially the youngest, no longer believing in the future are afraid of that future. As much, if not more than demography and rapid urbanization, these doubts about the future also explain the massive migrations within and beyond the borders of the Sahel. The rooting of violence reinforces terrorism and legitimizes it socially. Realities that are tragic to live with for the majority of citizens, but a business of illegal trafficking – drugs – cocaine cannabis – gold, cars, cigarettes, migrantion including illicit “business” attached to it -, real estate speculation and misappropriation of public markets including those financed by international aid. This context of neglect and permanent violence puts governments and traditional authorities under great pressure. Foreign partners often find themselves paralyzed. The deep country is increasingly left to terrorists because administrators, teachers and other public officials no longer want to or can serve in the provinces. Often without credible protection and caught between opposing parties, they flee their administrative positions.

This creeping weakening of states is poisoning the Sahel, creating suspicions at all levels. It widens and deepens the gap between the largely affected countries – Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – and their neighbors already affected or threatened by terrorism. Foreign countries, particularly France, see their official messages and speeches used to mobilize young people against Paris and the West. As elsewhere, this headlong rush by leaders is politically favorable to armed groups. It makes them recognized adversaries, ensuring them greater visibility rather favorable to funding and recruitment. Finally, this progressive weakening of public institutions and their continued “retribalization” fuel and consolidate terrorists.

By carrying out frequent armed attacks, often spectacular (airports, pipelines), they favor visibility « the priority » and are thus more recognized and feared. At the same time, they prepare the « secondary » or future fronts in regions and countries in which they have a target. They move there to recruit new supporters, choose to become clandestine in local conflicts that connect with each other. Planning… armed actions.

Huge challenges of anticipation and action.

In addition to these situations of great distress, signs of national governance weakness are the populations’ movements: internally displaced persons and refugees. In that context, nearly 163 million Africans face severe food insecurity and 45 million are forcibly displaced. In this context, nearly 163 million Africans face severe food insecurity and 45 million are forcibly displaced. That is a context favorable to the rooting and especially to the culture of « political terrorism. » A terrorism that, according to political and economic conjectures, is either armed and violent or more discreet and only exerting a power of pressure like a modern lobby.

Precisely, in countries in crisis, close links exist between governance, development and conflicts perpetuation. Close interlinks. Unresolved conflicts have multiple consequences that reinforce each other, thus perpetuating insecurity. Including: insurgencies between and within the armed groups themselves, coups d’état in the affected countries – thus internal power struggle – external actors in competition and encouraging opposed armed forces. All ignore or help environmental destruction and natural disasters.

Before the UN Security Council, which it chaired in May 2023, China pleaded for international support adapted to the Sahel context. It stressed the importance of a concept of common security, driven by regional cooperation within the Sahel and beyond. It recalled the challenges of the region: terrorism, humanitarian crisis, poverty reduction, climate change and economic development. China added that the fight against terrorism remains an absolute priority as it continues to advance against national armies, civilians and interstates trade by blocking national, regional and international ways. Beyond military means, which are essential, tackling the causes of terrorism, means of combating it and guaranteeing resources of substance to the populations – their food security- should remain priorities as they are essential in this fight. Thus, combating terrorism calls for using more than military means. Knowing how to tackle its reasons and root causes and providing means of substance for all. Food security and the development of agriculture, livestock and physical infrastructure are essential in this fight. All with a sense of urgency supported by the international community …if it does not have more important priorities!

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Precisely, the extreme vulnerability of the Gulfs of Benin and Guinea countries and the conflicts in Sudan and Libya also weaken the Sahel as a priority. This fading further aggravates the insecurity suffered by a highly politicized region – Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Military and diplomatic headlong rushes weaken states and populations bled dry after more than twelve years of war and… with no peace in sight.

This harsh national, regional and international context encourages competition and even disputes between external powers interested or present in the Sahel. Beyond economic and military cooperation, communication and even disinformation have been successful for more than two years for the Chinese, Russians, Turks and others, not particularly for France. Still, more than elsewhere, in the Sahel everything is shifting sand.

In fine: Boosted by a new confrontational patriotism, in some capitals, terrorism is, for the moment, the only winner. Resolving a civil conflict is a challenge to be met in order to direct everyone’s efforts towards national unity and development and not towards retribalization or a new cold war for which the Sahel can only pay the bill.

PS: Trump’s forthcoming Administration should be welcomed by Sahel citizen as their governments will realize that the Cold war ideological speeches are long dead.

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