Nigeria’s Population May Surge to 450 Million By 2050 – Experts

If the country continues with the current fertility rate, its population will almost double by the year 2050.

Experts have raised concerns over the potential surge in Nigeria’s population, which could reach 450 million by 2050 if urgent measures are not taken.

This concern was raised at the media roundtable ahead of the eighth Nigeria Family Planning Conference. The event was organised by the Association for the Advancement of Family Planning (AAFP) in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, and other family planning stakeholders in Abuja.

Speaking at the event, Chairman of the Management Committee, AAFP, Ejike Oji said Nigeria’s fertility rate is quite high and there is a need to reduce the rate to about four per cent.

Mr Ejike, who is also the Chairman of the Local Organising Committee for the conference said if the country continues with the current fertility rate, its population will almost double by the year 2050.

“Every year, we add about four million people to our population. However, this increase is geometric, meaning the numbers will rise exponentially over time– four million this year, 4.2 million next year, and potentially 10 million annually in the future,” he said.

Mr Oji referenced China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, as models for managing population growth.

“About 50 years ago, China and India were among the poorest nations. However, today, China is the second-largest economy in the world, and India is rapidly growing.

“Both countries achieved this by lowering their fertility rates and investing in their youth,” he explained.

He emphasised that Nigeria has a similar opportunity to turn its demographic challenge into a demographic dividend by reducing fertility rates and prioritising investments in health, education, and economic empowerment for its young population.

“If we miss this window and fail to bring our fertility rate down to four per cent by 2030, we will face a serious crisis,” he said.

Family Planning

A consultant at Amref International, Ifesinachi Eze, said disruptions in family planning and reproductive health services in humanitarian settings leave women with unmet FP needs, as the disruptions strain the health systems and require collaborative solutions.

Ms Eze said to address these issues, USAID’s Propel Adapt project is developing a private sector engagement guide for FP/RH supply chains in humanitarian settings.

“This guide, created in collaboration with FP2030, supports countries in rapidly assessing private sector capacities, fostering public-private collaborations, and strengthening FP/RH supply chains during emergencies,” she said.

She emphasised that collaboration is key to maximising impact in the health sector as no organisation can achieve sustainable development alone.

She urged governments and the private sector to work together to create the regulatory frameworks, financial incentives, and infrastructure that allow the health sector to thrive.

The Managing Director of FP 2030 North, West, Central Africa Hub, Martin Migombano, reiterated that Nigeria’s population may hit 450 million by 2050 because of the size of the country.

Mr Migombano said about 28.5 per cent of maternal mortality in the world actually happens in Nigeria.

“So there is still a lot that needs to be done by our partners, religious leaders, government, financial partners who are donors, and others,” he said.

“They are all coming to the conference to pledge again and make sure that whatever investments being made will goto the grassroots, where women actually should access family planning.”

About the conference

Mr Oji said the conference themed, “Sustaining commitments for family planning within the Nigeria Health Sector Renewal Investment Initiative; advancing progress toward achieving FP2030 goals,” will reemphasise the importance of family planning.

The conference, scheduled to hold from 2-6 December, 2024 is also expected to provide a platform for discussing strategies to scale up family planning initiatives and address barriers such as funding, accessibility, and cultural challenges.

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“This conference isn’t just about dialogue, It’s about action. We urge participants to share the discussions and outcomes beyond this conference to drive impactful change,” he said.

The FP2030 is a global partnership supporting women’s and girls’ reproductive rights. It aims to empower women and girls to lead healthy lives and make informed choices about contraceptive use.

It also aims to hasten the process of addressing obstacles that delay the advancement of commitments made by governments towards family planning, by strengthening result-oriented partnerships with stakeholders and experts

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation had missed the initial FP target set for 2020, partly due to the government’s failure to fund the programme, thereby hindering progress. FP 2020 goal was to enable 120 million additional women and girls of reproductive age, globally, to have access to contraceptives by the year 2020.

At the dawn of the deadline, the FP 2020 target indicators show that Nigeria has only 12 per cent MCPR for women.

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