Sudan: Growing Armed Presence in Eastern Sudan Fuels Fears of Escalation

Kassala — The ‘Eastern Battalion forces’ have said their troops are deployed across eastern Sudan in coordination with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). This raises fears of an escalation between the different armed groups present in eastern Sudan.

The deployment was confirmed in a statement on the group’s Facebook page on Tuesday, saying that Gen Amin Daoud’s battalion is now “securing the [Sudanese] border in Kassala” following technical and military consultations with the Sudanese “army of the people.”

The deployment of the Eastern Battalion has reportedly coincided with a similar move by the Beja Congress, an armed group led by Mousa Mohamed, which is also operating in the region. Observers are concerned this development could lead to skirmishes between these groups and with the Darfur Joint Force*, which has stationed troops in the same areas.

Fears are also mounting that regional militias may be drawn into the broader conflict between the SAF and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Long-standing tensions between different groups in the eastern states amplify fears of an escalation of a tribal character in the region.

A move from neutrality?

In recent months, analysts have identified five main armed groups active in eastern Sudan, most of which are trained in Eritrean camps. These include the Eastern Battalion led by Amin Daoud, Eastern Sudan Liberation Forces led by Ibrahim Dounia, the Beja Congress led by Musa Mohamed, and the Eastern Sudan National Movement led by Mohamed Tahir. Only the Sudan Shield Forces, led by Mubarak Barki and based within Sudan, is believed to train domestically in El Butana, El Gedaref, with the Rashaida tribe as their primary support base.

Khaled Taha, a journalist and writer, questioned in an interview with Radio Dabanga whether Daoud has formally abandoned his neutrality in the conflict, particularly as he has longstanding affiliations with the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) led by Jibril Ibrahim and the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-MM) led by Minni Minawi.

“Daoud’s recent visit to Omdurman, where he met with SAF deputy Commander-in-Chief Lt Gen Yasir El Atta, seems to be a turning point in his stance regarding the war”, Taha added. Reports indicate that Daoud received permission to open new offices in Sudan’s three eastern states, with promises of equipment and supplies for his forces. Radio Dabanga reached out to the Eastern Battalion leadership for comment but received no response.

Taha warned that the current redeployment of eastern militias effectively integrates them into the SAF’s operations. “Although termed a redeployment, it appears to be a direct involvement in the conflict.” He believes the militias will soon join SAF’s fight against the RSF. However, he cautioned that this conflict risks evolving from a military confrontation into a” broader tribal war, pitting communities against each other”.

Taha also voiced concern that this expanding tribal involvement could spread beyond eastern Sudan to other regions, particularly the southern Sennar and Blue Nile states. “With eastern and central Sudanese tribes such as the Beni Amer and Shukria maintaining historical alliances across the Eritrean border,” he suggested that these groups “might re-mobilise following the recent fighting in eastern El Gezira”. He concluded that if these alignments persist, even formal agreements between SAF and RSF might prove insufficient to stem the tide of inter-community violence.

What do you think?

On Wednesday afternoon, we posed a question to our readers about their views of the recent deployment of Eastern Battalion forces across Sudan’s eastern states, along with a poll: “Do you think that the deployment of the Eastern Battalion forces in the eastern states of Sudan will lead to more military and political complications?”

By 15.30 Sudan time, the majority had voted yes. On X (formerly Twitter), 62.8 percent agreed that the deployment would heighten complications, while 25.6 percent voted no, and 11.6 percent had no opinion. On Facebook, the response was more pronounced, with 77 percent of respondents voting yes, 17 percent no, and 6 percent undecided.

On Facebook, Maha Suleiman commented: “The multiplicity of militias produced by the so-called army, which is the actual mother of all these militias, is the real beginning of the disintegration and collapse of the Sudanese land and is the final plan of the criminal Islamic movement after the failure of its war falsely called dignity.”

Another user, identifying as ‘General’, countered: “To those who speak about the battalion ignorantly, know that the Eastern Battalion is the nucleus that formed the Sudan Defence Force and it is the one that trained the White Camel Corps before the existence of the armed forces with their current name.”

Other participants voiced concerns about the broader implications of the deployment. Suad Issa stated simply: “This is expanding the circle of war and transferring it to eastern Sudan,” while Ali Mohieddin supported the deployment, saying: “They are defending their country against foreign mercenaries.” Mohamed Adam called the move “a dangerous escalation that heralds more fighting between the army and the armed movements.”

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Some comments also took a lighter tone, with one user, ‘Wave of the Sea’, asking: “Are [the Eastern Battalion] the biological children of the army or are they adopted?”, implying that the SAF created the force, while another inquired “where are the Darfur Joint Forces?”.

* The Darfur Joint Force was formed in June 2022, as agreed on in the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement (JPA), to protect the people in the region. The force was made up of fighters of the Sudan Liberation Movement faction headed by Darfur Governor Minni Minawi (SLM-MM), the JEM faction led by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim (JEM-GI), and several small rebel groups that signed the JPA. These movements renounced their neutrality in November last year and are now fighting the RSF alongside the Sudanese army. Since then, Sudanese media speak about the Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements, while the group’s logo on their X and Facebook accounts says Sudanese Joint Force (and in Arabic Sudanese Joint Forces).

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