Ethiopia: New Report Forecasts Addis Abeba Among Key African Urban Hotspots By 2035

Addis Abeba — A new report by the Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that Addis Abeba will emerge as a key urban hotspot in Africa by 2035.

Joining Addis Abeba on the list of predicted hotspots are Brazzaville, Dar es Salaam, and Luanda.

While traditional African megacities like Cairo, Lagos, and Johannesburg are expected to maintain their economic dominance, the report, titled “African Cities 2035,” forecasts that mid-sized cities, such as Addis Abeba, are likely to experience significantly faster growth rates.

This acceleration is attributed to factors such as infrastructure development, urbanization, and the emergence of nearby megacities.

Addis Abeba, already recognized as one of Africa’s most dynamic city economies, is projected to achieve near or above double-digit real GDP growth annually up until 2035.

In contrast, cities like Nairobi and Abuja are anticipated to experience growth rates between 6% and 8% during the same period.

The report underscores Africa is experiencing rapid population growth, particularly in urban areas, driven by increased rural-to-urban migration.

“Africa’s urban population will rise from approximately 650 million in 2023 to nearly one billion in 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 3.5%, with over 50% of Africans living in towns and cities by 2035,” the report notes.

However, the authors caution that this rapid urbanization will bring challenges, including overcrowding, the expansion of informal settlements, and high unemployment, all of which will place significant strain on utility services across the continent.

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The Economist Intelligence Unit’s report was released a week after the conclusion of the first Africa Urban Forum, which took place in Addis Abeba from 4th to 6th September, 2024.

This gathering brought together officials, city planners, policymakers, academics, and community leaders from 47 African countries.

Held over three days, the forum focused on sustainable urbanization as part of Africa’s Agenda 2063 transformation plan.

While explaining the significance of the forum to a state media, Helen Debebe, State Minister for Urban and Infrastructure, highlighted that while the pace of urban expansion is rapidly increasing in Africa, this growth requires the establishment of fundamental infrastructure to support it.

“There is a need to speed up infrastructure development to make cities more comfortable and suitable for residents, ensuring the provision of better services,” the state minister noted.

Reports reveal that approximately 23% of Ethiopia’s population resides in urban areas.

Despite its substantial rural population, Ethiopia is undergoing a rapid process of urbanization, primarily fueled by an escalating rate of rural-to-urban migration. This demographic shift is largely driven by socioeconomic challenges, including elevated levels of youth unemployment and underemployment.

A study by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) indicates that the rural-to-urban migration rate in Ethiopia reached 32.2% in 2021.

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