Somalia: Egypt and Somalia’s Military Agreement Alarms Ethiopia

Mogadishu — “The region is entering uncharted waters” a note from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia warned, in reference to the new situation developing in Somalia, with the end of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the beginning of a new support mission. Namely, the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will feature the participation of troops from Burundi, Uganda and Egypt.

“Ethiopia cannot remain idle while other actors take measures to destabilize the region” read the Ethiopian statement addressed, albeit not by name, to Egypt, a country with which a bitter dispute is underway on account of the dam on the Nile (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) which Cairo considers a threat to its water and food security. The Addis Ababa missive was issued in the aftermath of the signing of a defense pact and a military cooperation protocol on part of Egypt and Somalia, with which they reiterate their commitment to strengthening bilateral ties and consolidating regional security. The pact was signed during an August 14 visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Cairo, where he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

The signing of the deal between Cairo and Mogadishu was followed by the landing of at least two Egyptian Air Force cargo planes carrying weapons and equipment for Somali forces.

Cairo has thus consolidated its military presence in Somalia, a country which, in turn, is at odds with Ethiopia due to the military naval agreement with the secessionist region of Somaliland (see Fides 3/1/2024 and 9/1/2024). Under the agreement, in exchange for granting a naval base (Ethiopia lost access to the sea after Eritrea’s independence in 1993), Addis Ababa has pledged to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign and independent state. An unacceptable move according to the Somali government, which said they would not approve of Ethiopia’s participation in the AUSSOM mission unless Addis Ababa withdraws from its understanding with Somaliland.

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Simultaneously, Egypt has started collaborating/competing with Turkey, another one of Somalia’s major sponsors, with which it has signed military and naval agreements (see Fides 22/2/2024) wherein Ankara undertakes to guarantee the security of the Somali coasts and in return is granted rights to exploit Mogadishu’s offshore resources. Turkish soldiers have already been officially present in Somalia for some time to train Somali troops and police. According to some sources, Egypt is now also preparing to deploy up to 10,000 soldiers to Somalia as part of the AUSSOM mission that will officially start in January of 2025.

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