South Africa Could Build a United Front On a Just Transition

Could policy convergence on climate change be a ray of hope in the country’s new Government of National Unity?

South Africa’s Government of National Unity has inspired a new public confidence across much of the country. The hope is that the honeymoon period is long enough to deliver alignment on critical decisions that can get South Africa out of its current quagmire and onto a path of prosperity.

Successfully dealing with climate change is close to the top of that list. The policy convergence among all political parties on the issue could be a breath of fresh air on the country’s often stormy political landscape.

Almost all parties’ manifestos mentioned climate change and the reduction of carbon emissions as a priority to mitigate the impact on the country’s most vulnerable communities. This is significant in a world where many politicians still consider climate change a hoax, and refuse to link human activity to the devastating effects of global warming.

In South Africa, political parties’ commitment to climate crisis mitigation differs. The ambitions of some seem driven by the electricity supply crisis at Eskom and the need to meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal to ensure affordable, sustainable, modern energy for all. High energy security is also essential to drive South Africa’s economic development ambitions.

If Eskom’s restoration formula includes the entity becoming a major player in low-carbon generators, the country could implement its ‘just transition’ in a clear, inclusive and timely way. This would be driven by a desire to protect South Africa’s communities from devastating floods in the east and droughts in the west – not by political point scoring and self-interest.

South Africa’s climate journey has been a rollercoaster ride. There is agreement across the board on two fundamentals. First, climate change is already having a devastating impact, with extreme weather events being the most prominent. Second, the country must eventually decarbonise and climb down from its status as the world’s 14th largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

South Africa submitted an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution in 2021, aligning its emissions targets with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s net zero target by 2050. This attracted global attention and led to an International Partners Group of developed countries and the European Union signing a deal with South Africa to make US$8.5 billion available to kickstart a national Just Energy Transition away from fossil fuels.

The responses were electric. For a country deep in the throes of devastating electricity cuts, this represented not only a catalytic pathway to decarbonisation, but also a leap to energy security.

South Africa’s aim of building a climate-resilient and low-carbon economy needs to accelerate with all stakeholders working as a united front for energy security and a sustainable future. This means its new political leadership must work on a consensus and singular definition of what a ‘just transition’ truly means.

As a matter of priority, the government must continue the community-based consultations initiated by the Presidential Climate Commission. This involved engaging local leaders, businesses, academics, organised labour and civil society on the importance of a just transition and what this means for people.

Currently, the climate change conversation still seems esoteric, elitist and the domain of academics and environmental activists. It lacks sufficient community buy-in, especially in parts of the country where coal mining and coal value chain services towns. The public consultations on the Just Transition Framework were a good start, but that momentum must be accelerated to develop greater public agency.

First, all communities, and especially vulnerable groups, must be made aware of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on their health, livelihoods and the ocean ecosystems and forests that sustain their lives.

Second, investment in research on improving the durability and reliability of available low-carbon energy sources is crucial. The ambitions of Eskom’s new leadership, Board Chairperson Mteto Nyati and CEO Dan Marokane, to restore and provide reliable energy, invest in solar and wind energy, geothermal energy, hydrogen and bioenergy, must continue in earnest. This will ensure a gradual transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy that is not disruptive.

The Government of National Unity has the task of aligning positions and making key decisions. One such decision is finalising the Integrated Resource Plan – the energy mix that will be South Africa’s energy generation formula for the coming decades. Another is finalising the new institutional arrangements for energy generation, transmission and distribution. The country’s emissions targets for the next five years must also be set.

New Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has taken an aggressive path to rolling out renewable energy. One of the major issues he needs to resolve is the extent of private sector participation. The two largest parties in the Government of National Unity – the African National Congress and Democratic Alliance – still sit far apart on the issue of privatisation and worker rights.

Will the unity government find the convergence solution, or will the current decision hiatus be translated into a multiparty divergence?

Dhesigen Naidoo, Senior Research Associate, Climate, ISS Pretoria

Yonela Diko, Director, YD Commodities